The Signal Intel

Evidence-backed UK political intelligence. Facts, not opinions.

Demographics

ONS data, census statistics, population change, emigration.

290 verified findings

ONS March 2026 Quarterly Update: Admin-Based Population Estimates NOT Adopted

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Quarterly Update on Population and Migration Statistics (March 2026) confirms: 1. Admin-Based Population Estimates (ABPEs) are NOT being adopted as official estimates. ABPE refers to a method of producing population estimates by applying a statistical model to administrative data. 2. Established methods for mid-year population estimates will continue to be used following review against published decision criteria and announcement of Census 2031. 3. Key findings from ABPE research: ABPEs were 0.1% lower at national level than official estimates, providing assurance that current official estimates are robust. 4. Census 2031 Strategy for England and Wales has been published, covering mission, vision, goals and objectives. A 2027 Census test will be the first large-scale test of data collection. 5. Mid-2025 population estimates will revise mid-2022, mid-2023 and mid-2024 estimates to incorporate improvements to long-term international migration estimates. 6. National Population Projections (NPPs) 2024-based bulletin for UK will be published in April 2026.

ONS Quarterly update on population and migration statistics: March 2026
released 4 March 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/po

ONS Weekly Deaths England and Wales: Week Ending 6 March 2026 - 11,512 Deaths

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS provisional data for week ending 6 March 2026 (Week 10 2026): - Deaths registered: 11,512 - 3.0% lower than expected (360 fewer deaths) - 12.8% involved influenza or pneumonia (1,470 deaths) - 0.2% involved Coronavirus (24 deaths) This follows the previous week's data (week ending 27 February 2026): 11,559 deaths registered. The weekly deaths data shows mortality tracking close to expected levels with influenza/pneumonia remaining a significant factor (1,470 deaths, 12.8% of total).

ONS UK Natural Change 2024/25: Births Exceed Deaths by Only 2,000

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS provisional data for year ending 30 June 2025 shows natural population change (births minus deaths) at critically low levels: - Estimated births: 653,000 - Estimated deaths: 651,000 - Natural change: +2,000 (births exceed deaths by only 2,000) This represents a dramatic narrowing of the natural change margin. For comparison, in calendar year 2024 there were 594,677 births and 568,613 deaths in England and Wales alone (natural change of +26,064). The near-zero natural change indicates the UK population is approaching a demographic tipping point where deaths could exceed births (negative natural change), with population growth becoming entirely dependent on net migration.

UK natural change of only +2,000 (births minus deaths) in year to mid-2025 = population growth almost entirely dependent on migration OR equivalent to adding just 3 people per existing 100,000 population through natural increase

ONS Net Migration Year Ending June 2025: 204,000 (Two-Thirds Drop)

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS provisional estimates show long-term net migration to the UK was 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, down from 649,000 in the year ending June 2024 - a two-thirds (69%) decrease. Migration flows YE June 2025: - Immigration: 898,000 people - Emigration: 693,000 people - Net migration: +204,000 This is the lowest net migration figure since the pandemic recovery period in 2021 and represents a sharp decline from the peak of 944,000 in year ending March 2023. The decline is attributed to fewer people coming to Britain for work or study following tougher government policies.

UK net migration of 204,000 in year to June 2025 = 2.94 new migrants per existing 1,000 population OR equivalent to adding a city the size of Oxford (~155,000) plus Cambridge (~124,000) in one year
ONS Long-term international migration
provisional: year ending June 2025
released 27 November 2025. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigratio

ONS Provisional UK Population Mid-2025: 69.5 Million

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS provisional estimate of UK population on 30 June 2025 is 69.5 million people (69,487,000). This is based on published estimates for births, deaths and international migration. Key components for year ending 30 June 2025: - Estimated long-term net migration: 204,000 - Estimated births: 653,000 - Estimated deaths: 651,000 - Natural change (births minus deaths): approximately +2,000 This represents continued population growth but with natural change (births exceeding deaths) at historically low levels. The population increased from 69.3 million in mid-2024. Note: This is a provisional estimate. Full mid-2025 population estimates for local authorities by single year of age and sex will be published in summer 2026.

UK population growth to 69.5 million by mid-2025 = 200,000 increase from mid-2024 OR equivalent to adding a city the size of Reading (~174,000) plus Slough (~164,000) in one year

UK Net Migration 2024: 431,000 - Almost Halved from 860,000

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS provisional estimates show UK long-term net migration was 431,000 in year ending December 2024, down almost 50% from 860,000 a year earlier. This is the largest fall in net migration on record in absolute numerical terms. Total long-term immigration was 948,000 (down from 1,326,000), and emigration was 517,000 (up 11% from 466,000). Non-EU+ net migration was +544,000, while EU+ net migration was -96,000 and British nationals -17,000 (more leaving than arriving). The decrease was driven by falling work and study visa arrivals, and increased emigration of students who originally came during pandemic travel restrictions.

ONS Long-term international migration provisional bulletin
year ending December 2024
released 22 May 2025

West Midlands Police Fairness and Belonging Strategy: Official Justification Documents

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

The West Midlands Police Fairness and Belonging Strategy was launched in July 2020 with the stated purpose of ensuring diversity, inclusion, anti-racism, fairness and equality are top priorities. The strategy aligns to the National Police Chiefs' Council Diversity, Equality & Inclusion Strategy supporting Policing Vision 2025. Three dedicated workstreams exist: Our People, Our Communities, and Our Culture. The strategy was developed to deliver towards the Force's mission, vision, values and behaviours and to meet Public Sector Equality Duty. Board papers from Strategic Policing and Crime Board meetings (January 2024, September 2022, November 2020) document ongoing progress updates.

West Midlands Police & Crime Commissioner Strategic Policing and Crime Board papers; West Midlands P

Metropolitan Police DEI Spending: £3.65M (2024-25), Planned £5.2M Annually

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Metropolitan Police Service disclosed via FOI (Reference: 01.FOI.25.042955) spending £3,655,144 on Diversity, Equality and Inclusion from April 2024 to February 2025. The Culture, Diversity and Inclusion unit will soon comprise 64 members of staff with planned annual spending of £5.2 million. Current spend on these roles is £3.2 million. The Met Police takes 25% of the total police budget for England and Wales. The force announced it would cut 1,700 officers and staff to plug a £260 million budget shortfall.

Metropolitan Police FOI response 01.FOI.25.042955; GB News report October 2025

England School Pupils EAL 2024/25: 21.4% Do Not Speak English as First Language

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

In the 2024/25 academic year, approximately 21.4% of all pupils at schools in England did not speak English as a first language, compared with 18% in 2015/16. The number of school-age pupils using English as an Additional Language (EAL) has tripled since 1997, from just under 500,000 (7.6%) to 1.68 million (20.5%) in 2023. In 2024, around 11,000 pupils arrived in the final two years of secondary with EAL, up from 5,000 in 2019.

21.4% of England school pupils (1.68 million) do not speak English as first language = 1 in 5 pupils needing language support OR equivalent to every pupil in 5,600 average primary schools (300 pupils each) requiring EAL assistance
Department for Education Schools
pupils and their characteristics 2024/25; Education Policy Institute Annual Report 2024; Oxford Univ

England and Wales Fertility Rate 2024: Record Low 1.41 Children Per Woman

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

The total fertility rate (TFR) for England and Wales in 2024 was 1.41 children per woman, down from 1.42 in 2023. This represents the lowest value on record for the third consecutive year. The TFR has been in decline since 2010. Only two regions saw increases: West Midlands (1.56 to 1.59) and London (1.33 to 1.35). The majority of Local Authorities (58.4%) experienced a decrease in TFR. England's TFR remained stationary at 1.42 for the first time since separate values were published in 2013. Wales decreased from 1.38 to 1.35.

England and Wales fertility rate 1.41 children per woman in 2024 = well below replacement level of 2.1 OR equivalent to each woman having 33% fewer children than needed to maintain population without migration
ONS Births in England and Wales: 2024 (refreshed populations)
released 27 August 2025

ONS UK Population Mid-2024: 69.3 Million, Growth of 755,300

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

The UK population reached an estimated 69.3 million people (69,281,400) in mid-2024. The population increased by 755,300 (1.1%) from mid-2023. This represents the second-largest annual numerical increase for over 75 years. England grew fastest at 1.2%, followed by Scotland (0.7%), Wales (0.6%), and Northern Ireland (0.4%). Net international migration was 738,700 (1,235,300 arrivals minus 496,500 departures). Births numbered 662,100 (lowest for at least 42 years) and deaths 645,900, giving natural change of +16,200.

ONS Population estimates for the UK: mid-2024 bulletin
released 26 September 2025

ONS Births 2024: 594,677 Live Births, 33.9% to Non-UK-Born Mothers, 40.4% Foreign-Born Parents

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS data for 2024 shows 594,677 live births in England and Wales, a 0.6% increase from 2023 (591,072) - the first increase since 2021. Key demographic data: 33.9% of births were to non-UK-born mothers (up from 31.8% in 2023) - the highest proportion on record. 40.4% of births in England had at least one foreign-born parent. In London, 84% of births had at least one foreign-born parent. Births to fathers aged 60+ rose 14.2% (1,076 babies), while births to mothers under 20 declined by nearly 5%. The total fertility rate hit a record low of 1.41 for the third consecutive year.

594,677 live births in England and Wales 2024: 33.9% to non-UK-born mothers = 201,595 births to migrant mothers OR equivalent to filling 6,720 average UK primary school classrooms (30 pupils each) with newborns of foreign-born parents
ONS Births England Wales 2024 (Published 2025)
ONS Statistical Bulletin

UK Police Forces DEI Spending: £10.28M Total Across England (2024 FOI Data)

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Freedom of Information requests to all police forces in England reveal total spending of £10,285,309 on Diversity, Equality and Inclusion (DEI) roles. This comprises £9,374,457 on wages and £910,852 on training courses. The cost equates to funding 354 police officers at starting salary of £29,000. Top spending forces: West Yorkshire (£1,069,188 wages + £361,000 training), Thames Valley (£1,085,170 wages + £0 training), City of London (£767,235 wages + £89,565 training). Cumbria Police reported no DEI roles or costs. Greater Manchester Police and North Yorkshire Police refused to disclose figures.

£10.28 million UK police DEI spending = £0.15 per UK taxpayer (based on 67.5 million taxpayers) OR equivalent to 354 additional police officers at £29,000 starting salary each
GB News FOI Investigation (May 2025)
The Times (Nov 2024)

Thames Valley Police DEI Spending: £1.085M on 17 Staff Positions (2024 FOI Data)

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Thames Valley Police spent £1,085,170 on 17 Diversity, Equality and Inclusion (DEI) staff positions according to GB News Freedom of Information request data (2024). The force spent £0 on DEI training courses. Two posts in Thames Valley are reported to have wages exceeding £100,000. TVP is identified as one of the two highest-spending police forces on DEI alongside West Yorkshire Police. This follows an October 2024 employment tribunal ruling in favour of three white officers who claimed race discrimination by the force, which led PCC Matthew Barber to commission an independent review into TVP's DEI policies.

GB News FOI Investigation (May 2025)
Thames Valley PCC Independent Review (Apr 2025)

Metropolitan Police DEI Spending: £3.65M (Apr 2024-Feb 2025), £5.2M Annual Planned

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Metropolitan Police Service disclosed via FOI (Reference: 01.FOI.25.042955) spending £3,655,144 on Diversity, Equality and Inclusion from April 2024 to February 2025. This covers police officer and staff pay, overtime, employee-related expenses, transport, and supplies. As of February 2025, the DEI team comprised 25.6 police staff and 25.8 police officers (51.4 FTE total). Reports indicate the Met plans to spend approximately £5.2 million annually on 64 diversity staff positions. The force faces a £250 million funding gap and is cutting 1,700 officers and staff while maintaining DEI expenditure. Scotland Yard reportedly spent nearly £450 million on equality and diversity over three years including recruitment, training and outreach.

Metropolitan Police FOI Response (Apr 2025)
Noah News (Oct 2025)
London Evening Standard

West Midlands Police Fairness and Belonging Strategy: £74k Assistant Director Role Approved 2020-2021

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

West Midlands Police Fairness and Belonging Strategy was launched in July 2020 with the Assistant Director Fairness and Belonging position advertised in January 2021 at £74,000 salary. The role was created to 'lead the implementation of the WMP Fairness and Belonging agenda, strategy and plan which underpins delivery of our workforce vision and values'. The Fairness & Belonging Strategy covers 2021-2025 and was developed to deliver towards the Force's mission and meet Public Sector Equality Duty. Strategic Policing and Crime Board papers from September 2022 document ongoing progress reports on the Fairness and Belonging Plan. The force was voted second most inclusive employer in the UK at the time of the role creation.

Coventry Telegraph (Jan 2021)
West Midlands PCC Board Papers (Sept 2022)
West Midlands Police Fairness & Belonging Strategy 2021-2025

King's College Hospital NHS Trust: DEI Leadership Structure

Demographics MEDIUM 2026-03-22

King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust DEI Structure: Leadership: - Director of Diversity, Equity & Inclusion (DEI) and Organisational Development (OD) - currently recruiting (advertised 2025) - Previous Executive Director of Equality, Diversity & Inclusion: Bernadette Thompson (July 2023 - May 2025) - EDI Team in place with dedicated staff Strategic Framework: - 'BOLD' Vision 2021-2026: One of four headline ambitions is 'diversity, equality and inclusion at the heart of everything we do' - Roadmap to Inclusion 2022-24 shaped strategic direction - Annual EDI Reports published (2023-2024 report available) Workforce: - Over 14,000 staff across 5 main sites - £1 billion turnover - 1.5 million patient contacts annually - Multiple staff networks established Awards: - Shortlisted for National Diversity Awards 2023, 2024 - Named 4th most Inclusive Employer (national ranking) Note: Specific expenditure figures not obtained in this research cycle - Annual Report and FOI requests would contain detailed financial data

King's College Hospital NHS Trust website; NHS Jobs advertisements; National Diversity Awards

Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Foundation Trust: DEI Staff and Expenditure Data

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

FOI Response Reference: FOI 346-2025 (published 18 March 2025) DEI Staff: - Total staff in diversity, equality, equity or inclusion role: 1 - Staff salary: £32,253 - £36,302 (Band 5/6 equivalent) EDI External Spend: - External training bodies and courses: £0 (no spend in last financial year) Trust Context: - Formed October 2019 from merger of 2gether NHS Foundation Trust and Gloucestershire Care Services NHS Trust - Provides integrated mental health, physical health and learning disability services - Serves Gloucestershire population Note: This represents minimal DEI staffing compared to other NHS trusts reviewed

Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Trust DEI staff salary £32,253-£36,302 = £0.48-£0.54 per UK taxpayer (based on 67.3 million taxpayers)
FOI 346-2025 - Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Foundation Trust

ONS Population Estimates Mid-2024: UK Population 69.3 Million

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Population Estimates for mid-2024: UK Population: - Total: 69.3 million (estimated) - England and Wales: 61.8 million (61,806,682) - Annual increase: 706,900 (1.2%) for England and Wales - Second largest annual numerical increase for over 75 years Components of Change: - Natural change (births minus deaths): +16,200 - Net international migration: 690,100 (lower than previous year but still main contributor) Key Demographic Trends: - Population growth driven primarily by international migration - Natural change contribution minimal (16,200 vs 690,100 from migration) - Revisions made to mid-2011 to mid-2023 estimates following improvements to migration estimates - Rebasing after Scotland's Census 2022 Regional Variations: - Wales: Newport saw largest percentage increase - England: Growth varies significantly by local authority - Internal migration patterns show continued movement from urban to rural/suburban areas

UK population 69.3 million mid-2024 = 1,022 people per square mile (based on UK area 93,628 sq miles: 69.3m ÷ 93,628)
ONS Population estimates for the UK
England and Wales: mid-2024

West Midlands Police DEI: Fairness and Belonging Strategy 2020-2025

Demographics MEDIUM 2026-03-22

West Midlands Police diversity and inclusion framework: Strategy Timeline: - Fairness and Belonging Strategy launched: July 2020 - Strategy period: 2020-ongoing with regular updates - FOI Ref 290A/25: Request for DEI positions and costs 2019-2025 Strategic Framework: Three core strands: 1. Our People 2. Our Communities 3. Our Partners Key Claims/Achievements: - Named 4th most Inclusive Employer in 2022-23 (up from 5th in 2021) - Positioned as 'national leads in diversity and inclusion' - Strategy designed to influence all aspects of police work - Aligns to National Police Chiefs' Council Diversity, Equality & Inclusion Strategy - Supports Policing Vision 2025 Governance: - Diversity & Inclusion department established - Monthly performance meetings with Strategy, Assurance & Delivery - Local Policing Area representatives involved - Equality Analysis system developed for impact assessments Note: Specific expenditure figures and outcomes data requested via FOI 290A/25 - response pending review

West Midlands Police website; FOI disclosure log; Police and Crime Plan documents

Greater Manchester Police FOI: Equality and Diversity Posts Requested

Demographics MEDIUM 2026-03-22

FOI Request Reference: 01/FOI/25/014168/L Filed: 07/02/2025 Requested by: Jonathan (per priority research brief) Information Requested: 1. Number of equality and diversity posts (police officers and staff) 2. Position and current salary for each role Status: FOI response published as PDF on GMP website Context: - Greater Manchester Police serves population of 2.8 million - Region has 23.6% non-white population (6th highest in UK) - Only 0.95% of GMP police officers are Black (compared to ~5% of regional population) - GMP has faced criticism for workforce representation - Force has Equality, Diversity and Inclusion Strategy and Achieving Race Equality Report (April 2023-March 2024) Note: PDF content could not be extracted in this research cycle - requires direct review

GMP FOI disclosure log; GMP website; BBC News reports

ONS Migration Data 2024/25: British National Emigration Revised to 257,000

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS revised migration estimates show significant British emigration: Year Ending June 2025: - Net migration: 204,000 (two-thirds lower than previous year - 649,000 in YE June 2024) - British national emigration: 257,000 (revised figure for 2024) - British national immigration: 306,000 - Net migration of British nationals: -114,000 (more leaving than returning) Key demographic implications: - 91% of British national emigrants are working age (16-64) - This represents a 'brain drain' of working-age British citizens - Emigration levels increased to 693,000 total (all nationalities), up by 43,000 from previous year - The revised methodology shows Brits leaving at three times the rate initially forecast Comparison: - 2024 net migration of British nationals: -114,000 - 2023 net migration of British nationals: -104,000 - Trend shows increasing outflow of British talent

ONS Long-term International Migration provisional: year ending June 2025; Commons Library Research B

Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust: DEI Staff and Expenditure Data

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

FOI responses from Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust reveal DEI expenditure: Staff (as of September 2025): - 3 staff employed in primary EDI roles (one secondment) - Head of EDI (Band 8b): £66,953 - EDI Officer (Band 6): £48,988 - EDI Project Support Coordinator (Band 4): £33,094 - Total salary cost: £149,035 Previous FOI (2023/24 data): - 2 staff: Head of EDI (Band 8a) and EDI Officer (Band 6) EDI Training/External Spend: - 22/23: £2,575 (subscriptions only) - 23/24: £3,090 (subscriptions) + £7,200 (training) - 24/25: £10,404 (subscriptions) + £300 (training) + £3,090 External providers include: AKD Solutions, NHS Employers Diversity in Health & Care Partners Programme, Calibre Leadership Programme, Skills Network Subscriptions include: Stonewall Diversity Champions, Business Disability Forum

FOI/2025/26/218 and FOI/25/365 - Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust

ONS Births 2024: Record High 33.9% of Births to Non-UK Born Mothers

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Births data for 2024 shows: - 33.9% of all live births in England and Wales were to non-UK born women, up from 31.8% in 2023 - This represents the highest proportion on record since ONS began recording this data - Total live births: 594,677 (first increase since 2021) - Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 1.41 children per woman - record low for third consecutive year - 40.4% of births in England had at least one foreign-born parent - In London, 84% of births had at least one foreign-born parent - India (4.4% of all live births) is the most common country of origin for non-UK born mothers - Numbers of births decreased for parents aged under 30, increased for parents aged 30+ - 14.2% increase in births to fathers aged over 60 since 2023

33.9% of births in England and Wales to non-UK born mothers = 1 in 3 babies (33.9% ≈ 1/3) has mother born outside UK
ONS Births in England and Wales: 2024 (published 2025)

ONS Births and Deaths 2024: Record Low Fertility Rate Continues

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Births and Deaths Data for England and Wales 2024: Live Births 2024: - England: 567,708 live births (increase of 0.7% from 2023) - Wales: 26,832 live births (decrease of 2.0% from 2023) - England and Wales combined: 594,540 live births Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 2024: - England and Wales: 1.41 children per woman - This is the lowest value on record for the 3rd consecutive year - 2023 TFR was 1.42 Deaths 2024: - England and Wales: 568,613 deaths registered Natural Change 2024/25: - Births exceeded deaths by only 26,064 (England and Wales) - UK natural change (mid-2024): +16,200 Stillbirth Rate: - England and Wales: 3.9 per 1,000 births (decrease of 0.1 from 2023) - England: 3.8 per 1,000 births - Wales: 4.4 per 1,000 births (increased from 4.0) Key Demographic Trends: - Births at lowest level for at least 42 years - Deaths at lowest since mid-2019 (pre-pandemic) - Natural change (births minus deaths) declining steadily - Net migration now primary driver of UK population growth

England and Wales TFR 1.41 children per woman = 30% below replacement level of 2.1 (calculated as (2.1-1.41)/2.1 × 100)

ONS Revised Migration Data: 257,000 British Nationals Emigrated in 2024

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Revised Migration Statistics (November 2025): British National Emigration 2024: - Revised estimate: 257,000 British nationals left the UK in year ending December 2024 - Previous estimate: 77,000 (revised upwards significantly) - British nationals returning to UK: 143,000 (up from 60,000) - Net migration of British nationals: -114,000 (negative - more leaving than returning) Methodology Change: - ONS changed from International Passenger Survey to administrative data from DWP (National Insurance numbers) - Previous survey methodology had "very small sample size" and was "stretched beyond its original purpose" Revised Historical Data: - Previous ONS series suggested 332,000 British nationals left between 2021-2024 - Revised data puts true figure at 992,000 (190% higher than previously thought) - Average of 679 British nationals leaving per day Population Impact: - UK population now estimated 97,000 lower than previously estimated - UK population mid-2024: 69.3 million (69,281,400) - Annual population increase: 755,300 (1.1%) - second largest in 75 years Components of Population Change (UK, year to mid-2024): - Births: 662,100 (lowest for at least 42 years) - Deaths: 645,900 (lowest since mid-2019) - Natural change: +16,200 - Net international migration: +738,700 - Immigration: 1,235,300 - Emigration: 496,500

257,000 British nationals emigrated in 2024 = 704 British nationals leaving per day (257,000 ÷ 365 days)

FOI: Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Trust DEI Staff and Expenditure 2024-2025

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

FOI Response Reference: GHC-12092025-604177 (published 20 October 2025) DEI Staff Headcount: - EDI staff: 1 position (as of September 2025) DEI Salary Costs: - Total salary cost for EDI staff in most recent financial year: £33,872.40 DEI Training/External Spend: - 2025-2026: £889.17 - 2024-2025: £1,186.00 - 2023-2024: Unable to provide accurate estimate due to internal budgetary changes, likely similar to 2024-2025 Note: The Trust also provides mandatory EDI training materials to staff.

Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Trust spent £33,872 on EDI staff salary in 2024-25 = £0.50 per UK taxpayer (based on 67.3 million taxpayers)

FOI: Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust DEI Staff and Expenditure 2023/24

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

FOI Response Reference: FOI/25/365 (requested 07/02/2025) DEI Staff Headcount: - Head of EDI (Band 8A): 1 position - EDI Officer (Band 6): 1 position - Total DEI staff: 2 DEI Expenditure 2023/24: - Staff costs: £116,972 (for 4 staff - appears to include additional EDI-related staff beyond the 2 core DEI roles) - Subscriptions: £12,847 - Training: £37,200 - Total DEI-related expenditure: £167,019 Note: Staff salaries based on NHS Agenda for Change pay scales. The Trust also reports participation in multiple benchmarking initiatives including NHS Workforce Race Equality Standard (WRES), Equality Delivery System (EDS), NHS Workforce Disability Equality Standard (WDES), and Stonewall Workplace Equality Index.

Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust spent £167,019 on DEI in 2023/24 = £2.48 per UK taxpayer (based on 67.3 million taxpayers)

English Housing Survey 2024-25: Housing Tenure Demographics by Origin

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

English Housing Survey 2024-25 Data (Published 2025): Housing Tenure Demographics: - Provides data on housing tenure by household origin and ethnicity - Covers owner-occupation, private renting, and social renting - Shows demographic patterns in housing access and affordability Key Areas Covered: - Housing tenure by ethnic group - First-time buyer demographics - Housing costs by household type - Overcrowding and under-occupation by demographics Context: - 16% of households in England lived in social housing (2023/24) - Social housing lettings in 2024/25: 263,000 households - Housing affordability remains a key issue across all demographic groups Note: Full detailed breakdowns available from Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government English Housing Survey publications.

English Housing Survey 2024-25
Ministry of Housing
Communities & Local Government

ONS FOI Release: British Emigrants Age Demographics - 76% Under 35 Years Old

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Freedom of Information Release on British Emigrants (Year Ending March 2025): Age Demographics: - 91% of British emigrants were of working age - 76% were under 35 years old - This represents a significant 'brain drain' of young British talent Context: - Total British emigration YE June 2025: 252,000 - Net migration for British nationals: -109,000 - The age profile indicates loss of future workforce and taxpayers Implications: - Young professionals leaving UK at significant rates - Potential long-term economic impact from lost productivity and tax revenue - May contribute to labour shortages in key sectors - Contrast with immigration which brings working-age non-British nationals Note: This FOI data provides important demographic detail on the composition of British emigration.

ONS FOI Release on British Emigrants Age Demographics (Year Ending March 2025)

Revised ONS Migration Data: 992,000 British Nationals Emigrated 2021-2024

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Revised Migration Estimates (November 2025): British Nationals Emigration (Cumulative 2021-2024): - Total British nationals emigrated: 992,000 over the four-year period - This represents a significant 'brain drain' of UK-born citizens Year Ending June 2025: - British emigration: 252,000 - Net migration for British nationals: -109,000 (more leaving than arriving) Age Demographics of British Emigrants (FOI Data): - 91% of British emigrants were of working age - 76% were under 35 years old - This indicates a significant loss of young, working-age talent Implications: - Significant outflow of British nationals, particularly young professionals - Potential skills shortages in UK labour market - Loss of tax revenue from high-earning emigrants - Demographic impact on UK population composition - Contrast with immigration patterns which bring in predominantly working-age non-British nationals Note: New methods for EU+ and British nationals based on improved data sources were introduced in November 2025.

ONS Long-Term International Migration
Provisional: Year Ending June 2025 (Released 27 November 2025); Full Fact analysis (November 2025)

ONS Mid-2024 Migration: Net International Migration 690,100 to England and Wales

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Population Estimates for England and Wales: Mid-2024 - International Migration Component: Net International Migration: - Mid-2023 to Mid-2024: 690,100 net international migrants to England and Wales - This was a major driver of the population increase of 706,900 Context: - This figure represents migration before the significant decline seen in 2025 - Year Ending June 2025 net migration fell to 204,000 (two-thirds lower) - The high 2024 figure reflects post-pandemic migration patterns and specific visa schemes Comparison: - Mid-2023 to Mid-2024: 690,100 net migration - Year Ending June 2025: 204,000 net migration - Decline of approximately 70% Note: This data helps explain why the mid-2024 population estimate showed such a large increase, while future growth will be more modest.

ONS Population Estimates for England and Wales: Mid-2024 (Released 30 July 2025)

ONS Deaths England Wales 2024: 568,613 Deaths Registered, 2.2% Decrease from 2023

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Deaths Registered in England and Wales: 2024 (Released August 2025): Total Deaths: - 568,613 deaths registered in England and Wales in 2024 - Decrease of 2.2% compared with 2023 (581,363 deaths) - Decrease of 12,750 deaths Age-Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR): - 930.5 deaths per 100,000 people - This is the lowest since the time series began in 1994 - For the third consecutive year, ASMR has been at its lowest level on record Context: - Despite population growth and ageing, mortality rates continue to decline - This reflects improvements in healthcare and living standards - However, with births declining faster than deaths, natural population decrease is imminent Comparison with Births: - Deaths: 568,613 (2024) - Births: 594,677 (2024) - Natural increase: 26,064 - This small natural increase is projected to become a decrease in 2026 Note: The declining mortality rate masks the underlying demographic challenge of declining fertility.

ONS Deaths Registered in England and Wales: 2024 (Released August 2025)

ONS Births England Wales 2024: 33.9% of Births to Non-UK-Born Mothers, 40.4% Foreign-Born Parents

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Births in England and Wales: 2024 Data (Released August 2025): Births to Non-UK-Born Mothers: - 33.9% of live births were to non-UK-born women (2024) - This is the highest proportion on record - Up from 31.8% in 2023 - Increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year Births to Foreign-Born Parents: - 40.4% of births in England had at least one foreign-born parent - This represents a significant increase from previous years Total Live Births: - England and Wales: 594,677 live births (2024) - This is an increase in absolute numbers from 2023 - However, TFR still declined to 1.41 due to population growth Context: - The proportion of births to non-UK-born mothers has been steadily increasing - This reflects both immigration patterns and fertility rate differentials - In some areas, particularly London, the proportion is significantly higher - The data highlights the demographic contribution of migration to UK population growth Implications: - Without births to non-UK-born mothers, UK births would be significantly lower - Natural population decrease would occur sooner - Highlights the role of migration in maintaining population levels

ONS Births in England and Wales: 2024 (refreshed populations) (Released 27 August 2025)

Resolution Foundation: UK Deaths to Exceed Births in 2026 - Natural Population Decrease Begins

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Resolution Foundation Analysis (January 2026): Population Tipping Point: - The number of deaths in the UK is likely to exceed the number of births in 2026 - This marks a 'tipping point' for the country - Described as a permanent shift that will increase pressure on public finances - Natural population decrease will begin in 2026 ONS Data Context: - UK Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 1.41 children per woman (2024) - well below replacement level of 2.1 - Natural increase in mid-2025: Only 2,000 (653,000 births minus 651,000 deaths) - The UK is approaching the point where natural decrease (more deaths than births) becomes the norm Implications: - UK will become increasingly dependent on net migration for population growth - Fewer workers to support ageing population - Higher taxes required to maintain public services - Increased pressure on pension and welfare systems - Potential need for policy interventions to boost birth rates or manage immigration This demographic shift represents a fundamental change in UK population dynamics, ending the era of natural population growth.

Resolution Foundation analysis (January 2026); Bloomberg reporting (January 2026); ONS Provisional P

Centre for Social Justice: State Pension Age Could Hit 75 by 2039 Due to Birth Rate Collapse

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Centre for Social Justice Report "Baby Bust: Helping families realise their dreams of parenthood" (Published March 2025): Key Findings: - Britain's state pension age may need to rise as high as 75 by 2039 unless the government acts urgently to reverse the 'collapsing' birth rate - Around 600,000 women today may miss out on motherhood due to declining fertility rates - The UK's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.41 is well below replacement level of 2.1 Resolution Foundation Analysis (January 2026): - The number of deaths in the UK is likely to exceed the number of births in 2026 - This marks a 'tipping point' for the country - Described as a permanent shift that will increase pressure on public finances - Natural population decrease will begin in 2026 Implications: - Fewer workers to support ageing population - Higher taxes required to maintain public services - Increased pressure on pension and welfare systems - Potential need for higher immigration to offset labour shortages

Centre for Social Justice Report "Baby Bust: Helping families realise their dreams of parenthood" (P

Census 2031 Operational Test Announced: 120,000 Households Across 6 Local Authorities in Spring 2027

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Census 2031 Programme Update (March 2026): Census 2031 Operational Test: - Scheduled for Spring 2027 - Will involve 120,000 households - Across 6 local authorities in England and Wales - First large-scale test of data collection in the census programme - Will inform design decisions for the actual Census 2031 Census 2031 Strategy: - Strategy document published covering mission, vision, goals and objectives - Consultation on census content closed 4 February 2026 - Evaluation criteria for analysing responses published - Response update due around 12 weeks after consultation closing date - Detailed consultation analysis reports planned for late summer 2026 Significance: - Census 2031 will be the first census since 2021 - Will provide comprehensive demographic data including ethnicity, language, country of birth - Critical for tracking demographic changes over the decade - Will help validate current population estimates and projections

ONS Quarterly Update on Population and Migration Statistics: March 2026 (Released 4 March 2026); ONS

ONS National Population Projections 2024-Based: Due April 2026

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Population Projections Update (March 2026 Quarterly Update): National Population Projections (NPPs) 2024-Based: - Due for publication in April 2026 - Will provide projections of future size and age structure of UK population - Based on mid-year population estimates and assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration Census 2031 Update: - Census 2031 Strategy for England and Wales has been published - Operational test scheduled for Spring 2027 with 120,000 households across 6 local authorities - Consultation on Census 2031 content closed 4 February 2026 - Response update due around 12 weeks after closing date (approximately May 2026) - Detailed consultation analysis reports planned for late summer 2026 Methodology Decisions: - Admin-Based Population Estimates (ABPEs) will NOT be adopted as official statistics - Established methods for mid-year population estimates will continue - Mid-2025 population estimates will be published in summer 2026 with revisions to mid-2022, mid-2023 and mid-2024 Note: These projections will be critical for understanding future demographic trends including the projected 'tipping point' where UK deaths exceed births.

School Census January 2025: White British Pupils Minority in 25% of English Schools, 72 Schools Have None

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Department for Education School Census January 2025 Analysis: White British Pupils: - 60.3% of all pupils in England are White British (down from previous years) - White British pupils are now a minority in 25% of all schools in England - Analysis of data from over 21,500 primaries and secondaries Schools with No/Low White British Pupils: - 72 English schools have NO White British pupils at all - 454 schools have White British pupils making up less than 2% of the student body Context: - This represents a significant demographic shift in the English school system - The data was collected in the January 2025 school spring census - Previous analysis showed White British pupils were minority in 23% of schools in 2022 Regional Variation: - London has the lowest proportion of White British pupils - Some urban areas have very high concentrations of ethnic minority pupils

Department for Education School Census January 2025; The Telegraph analysis June 2025; DfE Schools
Pupils and Their Characteristics 2024/25

ONS Provisional UK Population Mid-2025: 69.487 Million, Natural Increase Only 2,000

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Provisional Population Estimate for UK: Mid-2025 (Released 27 November 2025): Total UK Population: - 30 June 2025: 69.5 million people (69,487,000) - This is a provisional estimate based on published estimates for births, deaths and international migration Components of Change (Year Ending 30 June 2025): - Estimated long-term net migration: 204,000 - Estimated births: 653,000 - Estimated deaths: 651,000 - Natural increase: Only 2,000 Context: - The provisional estimate is not available by subnational area, age or sex - Mid-2025 UK population estimates for local authorities by single year of age and sex will be published in summer 2026 - This follows the mid-2024 estimate of 69,281,000 Note: The natural increase of only 2,000 indicates the UK is approaching the 'tipping point' where deaths exceed births, as projected by the Resolution Foundation for 2026.

ONS Births England Wales 2024: Total Fertility Rate Record Low 1.41 for Third Consecutive Year

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Births in England and Wales 2024 (refreshed populations data released August 2025): Total Fertility Rate (TFR): - 2024: 1.41 children per woman (lowest value on record for 3rd consecutive year) - 2023: 1.42 children per woman - Decline since 2010 Regional TFR Changes: - West Midlands: Increased from 1.56 (2023) to 1.59 (2024) - London: Increased from 1.33 (2023) to 1.35 (2024) - North West: No change - All other regions saw decreases Local Authority Variation: - 58.4% of LAs experienced decrease in TFR - 33.1% saw increase - 8.5% saw no change - Highest TFR: Luton (2.00) - Lowest TFR: City of London (0.32) - Birmingham had largest increase (+0.14) - Maldon had largest decrease (-0.22) Standardised Mean Age of Mothers: - 2024: 31.0 years (increased 0.1 from 2023) - London had highest mean age: 32.5 years - Standardised mean age of fathers: 33.9 years

Census 2021: White British Population 74.4% in England and Wales - Down from 87.5% in 2001

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Census 2021 data on ethnic group in England and Wales: White British Population: - 2021: 74.4% (44.4 million) identified as "English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British" - 2011: 80.5% (45.1 million) - 2001: 87.5% (45.5 million) - Decline of 13.1 percentage points over 20 years (2001-2021) - Decline of 6.1 percentage points between 2011-2021 All White Ethnic Groups: - 2021: 81.7% (48.7 million) - down from 86.0% (48.2 million) in 2011 Largest Increases: - "White: Other White" category: 6.2% (3.7 million) in 2021, up from 4.4% (2.5 million) in 2011 - "Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh": 9.3% (5.5 million) in 2021, up from 7.5% (4.2 million) in 2011 - "Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group": 1.6% (924,000) in 2021, up from 0.6% (333,000) in 2011 Households with mixed ethnic composition: 10.1% (2.5 million) in 2021, up from 8.7% (2.0 million) in 2011

ONS Migration YE June 2025: British Emigration 252,000, Net Migration -109,000 for British Nationals

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Long-Term International Migration data for Year Ending June 2025 shows significant British emigration: British Nationals: - Emigration: 252,000 British nationals left the UK - Net migration for British nationals: -109,000 (more leaving than arriving) - This is now at similar levels to non-EU+ emigration - The emigration of British nationals has remained broadly stable Overall Migration: - Total long-term net migration: 204,000 (down from 649,000 in YE June 2024 - two-thirds lower) - Total immigration: 898,000 (down from 1,299,000 in YE June 2024) - Total emigration: 693,000 (up from 650,000 in YE June 2024) By Nationality Group: - Non-EU+ net migration: +383,000 (continuing downward trend since 2022) - EU+ net migration: -70,000 (continuing downward trend since 2016 referendum) - British nationals net migration: -109,000 Note: New methods for EU+ and British nationals based on improved data sources were introduced for this release.

ONS Weekly Deaths England Wales: Week Ending 20 March 2026 - Pre-Release Announcement

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Pre-Release Announcement: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional data for week ending 20 March 2026 will be published on 1 April 2026 at 9:30am. This follows the publication of: - Week ending 6 March 2026: 11,512 deaths (3.0% lower than expected, 360 fewer deaths) - Week ending 13 March 2026: Pre-release announced for 25 March publication The weekly deaths dataset provides provisional counts by age, sex, region and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

ONS GOV.UK Statistics Announcement - Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales
provisional: week ending 20 March 2026 (Published 19 March 2026) - https://www.gov.uk/government/sta

NRS Scotland Weekly Deaths Week 12 2026: Data Pending Publication

Demographics MEDIUM 2026-03-22

National Records of Scotland (NRS) has announced that weekly deaths data for Week 12 of 2026 (16-22 March) is pending publication. This follows Week 11 data showing 1,201 deaths registered (6% below expected).

NRS Weekly Deaths Pre-Release Announcement

NISRA Weekly Deaths Northern Ireland: Week Ending 20 March 2026 - Pre-Release Announcement

Demographics MEDIUM 2026-03-22

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) has announced the pre-release of weekly deaths data for week ending 20 March 2026. Publication is scheduled for 27 March 2026. This follows the previous week's data (ending 13 March) which recorded 384 deaths.

ONS Census 2031 Operational Test 2027: 120,000 Households Across 6 Local Authorities

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS has announced details of the 2027 Census Test for Census 2031 preparation: TEST SCALE: - 120,000 households across six local authorities will be invited to complete a questionnaire - Additional sample of 100,000 households in other parts of England and Wales - All students in halls of residence in two cities will be invited to participate - 50 care homes within the six local authorities will test new data collection approaches TEST LOCATIONS (Six Local Authorities): 1. Breckland 2. Cardiff 3. Monmouthshire 4. Newcastle upon Tyne 5. North Norfolk 6. Westminster SELECTION CRITERIA: - Mix of urban and rural areas - Areas with low digital propensity - Welsh-speaking areas - University locations - Areas not recently used in Census testing (avoiding 2017 test and 2019 rehearsal locations) DATA COLLECTION METHODS BEING TESTED: - Online questionnaire completion (primary method) - Paper forms as alternative - Doorstep completion with field officers - Telephone completion with contact centre - New authentication processes for online responses - Alternative data sources to identify vacant properties - New engagement approaches for students in halls - Care home resident data collection PURPOSE: The test is voluntary and data will NOT be used for statistical outputs. Results will inform operational design decisions for Census 2031, testing different approaches to determine most effective methods. TIMELINE: - Test scheduled for 2027 - Census 2031 confirmed for England and Wales - Topic consultation closed 4 February 2026 - Response update due around 12 weeks after consultation close - Detailed consultation analysis reports due late summer 2026

ONS Census 2031 test involving 120,000 households means £2.50 per household cost: assuming £300,000 total test cost (based on previous census tests) / 120,000 households = £2.50 per participating household, or 41p per UK household when spread across all 28 million households.
ONS Census 2031 2027 Test page (www.ons.gov.uk/census/aboutcensus/census2031/2027test)
Welsh Government Written Statement on Census test in Wales planned for 2027

ONS FOI Release: Births and Deaths Per Year Data 1941-2025 (Crude Rates)

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

ONS Freedom of Information response (FOI-2026-3425) published 18 March 2026 provides guidance on accessing historical crude birth and death rates: Key Data Sources Identified: - Deaths registered in England and Wales dataset: Table 1 shows deaths, crude and age-standardised-mortality rates (ASMRs) by sex and country for deaths registered between 1838 and 2024 - Crude mortality rates available from 1953 onwards - Births in England and Wales: birth registrations dataset provides crude birth rates from 1938 onwards - 2023 and 2024 crude birth rates available in Table 1 of births registrations dataset This FOI response confirms the availability of long-term demographic trend data spanning 1941-2025 for births and deaths crude rates in England and Wales.

ONS FOI release provides access to 84 years of birth/death data (1941-2025) = 1.65 years of data per year of FOI request processing (84 years ÷ 51 years since 1975 FOI Act)

NISRA Northern Ireland Weekly Deaths: 384 Registered Week Ending 13 March 2026

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) weekly deaths data: - Week ending 13 March 2026 (Week 11): 384 deaths registered - 9 fewer than previous week (393) - Expected deaths: 332 (based on mortality rates and trends) - Excess deaths: 52 above expected - Male deaths: 187 (expected: 168, excess: 19) - Female deaths: 197 (expected: 163, excess: 34) - 2026 cumulative deaths by 13 March: 4,342 - Hospital: 1,980 (45.6%) - Care homes: 795 (18.3%) - Residential/hospices/other: 1,567 (36.1%) - Deaths mentioning flu/pneumonia in Week 11: 79 (2026 cumulative: 874) - Over two-thirds (68.5%) of 2026 deaths were in 75+ age group

NISRA Weekly Registered Deaths
20 March 2026

NRS Scotland Weekly Deaths Week 11 2026: 1,201 Deaths (6% Below Expected)

Demographics HIGH 2026-03-22

National Records of Scotland (NRS) weekly deaths data for Week 11 of 2026 (9 March to 15 March): - Provisional total deaths registered: 1,201 - 76 deaths (6%) lower than expected number - NRS is implementing format changes to weekly deaths publication from March 2026 - New format includes: detailed age breakdowns, new location categories (hospices added, care home definition aligned with Care Inspectorate) - Data separated into two workbooks: finalised 2020-2024 and provisional 2025-2026 Cumulative 2026 deaths in Scotland by mid-March: Data tracking ongoing.

NRS Scotland Weekly Deaths Publication
19 March 2026